Finland doubles down on Ukraine as 'best security guarantee' amid new aid, French nuclear umbrella and Russian drone find

Helsinki has spent the past three weeks translating rhetoric into action. Finnish President Alexander Stubb has called Ukraine "the best guarantee of our security against Russia," and in a flurry of moves – a new €290 million aid package, a formal join of France's nuclear deterrent initiative, and the identification of a Russian drone washed up on a Finnish beach – Finland is positioning itself as one of Europe's most committed backers of Kyiv.

Stubb's remarks came in an interview with German tabloid Bild on 29 August, where he argued that Ukraine is now "in a stronger and better position than ever before during this war – militarily, politically and financially." He framed support for Kyiv as an investment in Finland's own future. "If Ukraine loses, we lose too," he said, as reported by Ukrainska Pravda.

That message was followed by concrete action on 15 September, when Finland approved its 34th military aid package for Ukraine, worth €290 million. Stubb, speaking during a visit to Kyiv, said the package contains materiel that Ukraine had "urgently requested" as it prepares for a fifth winter at war. "Finland supports Ukraine because it is morally right to do so," he wrote on X, adding that this is about the security of all of Europe, and therefore also of Finland, according to Ukrainska Pravda.

The timing is telling. Stubb had earlier warned that Ukraine must be prepared for the "worst" scenario this winter, and said Finland is actively working to ensure Ukraine has sufficient energy supplies. The new aid package is aimed at addressing some of those needs, with a focus on air defence.

A day earlier, on 14 September, Finland formally joined France's Forward Deterrence Initiative, becoming the tenth European country to sign up for cooperation with the French nuclear umbrella. The announcement came as part of a new strategic partnership between Helsinki and Paris, formalised by the two countries' foreign ministers in Helsinki. A nuclear steering group is to be set up in the coming months to implement the cooperation, according to Al Jazeera.

Stubb was quick to stress that the initiative does not replace NATO's nuclear deterrence, and that the move had been discussed extensively with the United States and the alliance. But the symbolism is hard to miss: Finland, which shares a 1,300-kilometre border with Russia, is hedging against a future in which Washington's commitment to Europe is less certain. Estonia is also in talks with France about joining, according to Prime Minister Kristen Michal.

The nuclear umbrella and the aid package are not the only security headaches for Helsinki. On 9 September, Finland completed its investigation into a drone found on a beach earlier in the month, identifying it as a Russian Geoscan 701 reconnaissance drone, as reported by Ukrainska Pravda. The incident underscores the tangible, if low-level, intrusions that have become routine along NATO's eastern flank. Finnish authorities have not linked the drone directly to the war in Ukraine, but the find fits a pattern of Russian surveillance activity near critical infrastructure.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's own defensive capabilities are getting a boost. On 9 September, Defence Minister Rustem Umerov announced that Ukraine is signing contracts for around 1,000 Patriot missiles, a significant addition to its air-defence arsenal, as reported by Ukrainska Pravda. The timing aligns with Stubb's warning that Ukraine must be ready for a difficult winter, and with Finland's stated focus on air defence in its next aid packages.

For Finland, the message is consistent: Ukraine's survival is Finland's security. Whether through aid, nuclear cooperation, or simply naming the threats that wash up on its shores, Helsinki is acting on that belief. As Stubb put it, "If Ukraine loses, we lose too." For a country that joined NATO in 2023 after decades of neutrality, that is a stark – and deliberate – statement of intent.