As shipping through Hormuz dries up, Iran's civilians pay the price of a grinding war

For the 90 million people living inside Iran, the war that began on February 28, 2026 has long since ceased to be a matter of missile strikes and diplomatic posturing. It has become a daily siege on their ability to earn a living, feed their families, and keep their homes intact. Seven months in, the economic pressure is showing clear signs of fracture, and civilians — not commanders — are absorbing the heaviest blows.

On September 8, data from commodity tracking firm Kpler showed that an average of just 10 cargo ships per day had transited the Strait of Hormuz over the previous ten days, the lowest volume since May. Qatar’s government has warned that if the crisis continues, the region faces an “industrial catastrophe” (Source). The strait, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil passes in peacetime, has become a bottleneck of war.

Iran’s oil minister, Mohsen Paknejad, acknowledged on September 4 that the country’s oil industry is “circumventing” a US naval blockade, but described the situation as “difficult” (Source). In practice, that circumvention means Iranian tankers are taking longer, riskier routes, and that revenue from crude sales — the bedrock of the state budget — has plummeted. The knock-on effect for ordinary Iranians is a currency in freefall and prices for imported goods, from medicine to cooking oil, that climb every week.

The human cost of that economic strangulation is best measured not in aggregate data but in individual lives. Khadijeh Bandari, a 28-year-old fisherwoman from Hengam Island in southern Iran, told Al Jazeera how the war destroyed the small world she built with her husband: a fishing boat, a guesthouse for tourists, and an Instagram page that let them sell fresh fish to cities on the mainland. When US airstrikes began on February 28, a coastguard ordered her to pack up her stall and stay away from the beach. “We had an ordinary life,” she said. “Now there is no fishing, no tourists, no income. My three-year-old son Keyhan does not understand why we cannot go to the sea anymore” (Source).

Bandari’s story is not an isolated tragedy. It reflects the experience of coastal communities across the south of Iran, which have lost access to their primary livelihood. The war has also hit the restaurant and tourism sectors on islands like Qeshm and Kish, which previously attracted domestic and international visitors. A previous article from this desk, “We had an ordinary life: How six months of war have shattered Iran’s coastal communities”, outlined how the fishing industry along the Persian Gulf coast has effectively collapsed.

Military escalation and civilian casualties

While the economic front deteriorates, the military exchanges continue to inflict direct harm. On September 3, Iran’s health minister reported that the death toll from US airstrikes had reached 18, including two children (Source). That same day, an Iranian drone struck a residential building in Kuwait City, causing damage but no casualties. Iran has repeatedly targeted US military assets across Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan and the UAE in retaliation for US strikes (Source).

The US has shown no sign of relenting. On September 5, President Donald Trump said the US might target Iran’s “Pickaxe Mountain” — a reference to a strategic mountain base — “very soon.” Iran’s air defence commander, Brigadier-General Alireza Elhami, responded by saying the country is “ready for any kind of confrontation” (Source). In the diplomatic realm, the White House ruled out talks on September 4 until Iranian attacks on commercial shipping stop (Source).

Tehran, for its part, announced on September 7 that it would open a new shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days, in cooperation with Oman. Iran’s top negotiator warned that any new attacks on Iranian oil tankers would draw “heavier responses” (Source). But it remains unclear whether such a route can be enforced without a naval clash, and whether it can restore the volume of traffic needed to alleviate the economic pain.

What it means for the region

For the Ukraine Desk audience, the parallels with a war of attrition that grinds down civilians are plain. The instruments are different — a naval blockade vs. missile strikes on infrastructure — but the outcome is the same: ordinary people bear the cost while the political and military establishments dig in. The US administration’s refusal to negotiate until attacks stop, combined with Iran’s stated refusal to “capitulate,” suggests the war will drag on, and the quarter of the world’s oil that passes through the Gulf will remain at risk.

Two months ago, in “Seven months into the war, Iran's civilians bear the cost as US rules out talks,” this desk noted that the window for a diplomatic solution appeared to be closing. That window is now almost shut. With commodity shipping at a five-month low and Qatar warning of an industrial catastrophe, the pressure on Iran’s 90 million citizens will only intensify. The question is how long the regime can maintain its resistance before domestic dissatisfaction forces a change of course — and how much more destruction the civilian population will have to endure before that happens.