Seven months in, Iran’s war strains civilians and global energy — with direct consequences for Ukraine

As the US-Israel war on Iran enters its seventh month, the conflict is no longer just a regional crisis. The steady degradation of Iran’s civilian economy and the simultaneous strangulation of global oil chokepoints are creating knock-on effects that European capitals — already stretched by support for Ukraine — can ill afford to ignore.

For Iran’s 90 million people, daily life has become a grind of inflation, blackouts and lost livelihoods. A first-person account published by Al Jazeera from Khadijeh Bandari, a fisherwoman on Hengam Island, captures the collapse of a once-self-sufficient coastal community. “The sea belongs to us women just as much as it belongs to men,” she said, describing how US strikes on February 28 and subsequent naval blockades have made fishing impossible. Her family’s guesthouse and restaurant are shuttered; her three-year-old son no longer joins her on the water. “We had an ordinary life,” she told Al Jazeera. Source: Al Jazeera

That ordinary life has been replaced by a war economy. Iranian oil minister Mohsen Paknejad acknowledged on September 4 that the country’s petroleum industry is struggling to “circumvent” a US naval blockade, calling the situation “difficult but manageable”. Source: Al Jazeera The broader picture is less manageable: data from Kpler shows an average of just 10 commodity ships per day transiting the Strait of Hormuz in the first ten days of September — the lowest level since May. Qatar’s government has warned of an “industrial catastrophe” if the crisis continues. Source: Al Jazeera

The shipping crisis extends beyond Hormuz. On the Red Sea coast, Houthi forces have seized control of the coastline, prompting Saudi Arabia and the Houthis to trade strikes over the Bab al-Mandeb chokepoint. Saudi Arabia stopped oil loadings at its Yanbu port after drone attacks shut its East-West pipeline — an attack that Iraq confirmed originated from its territory, leading Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi to dismiss a regional army commander. Source: Al Jazeera The Bab al-Mandeb closure adds another layer of risk to global energy routes, particularly for European buyers already competing for LNG and crude amid the Ukraine war.

Despite the escalating economic pressure, diplomatic moves remain contradictory. US President Donald Trump claimed on September 17 that the US is “nearing an end of the war” and that direct talks with Tehran have taken place. Source: Al Jazeera But Iran’s security chief Mohsen Rezaei countered on September 15 that there will be “no talks until Iran’s demands are met”. Source: Al Jazeera A planned meeting between Iran and Gulf states in Oman, mediated by Muscat, has been postponed at the request of regional countries. Meanwhile, Iran’s top diplomat has headed to Beijing, signalling that Tehran is seeking alternative diplomatic backing. Source: Al Jazeera

On the military front, the conflict shows no sign of de-escalation. A report published on September 18 found “reasonable grounds” that the US was behind a deadly February strike on a school in Minab — a claim that, if confirmed, would represent a significant civilian casualty event. US Central Command (CENTCOM) has not commented. Source: Al Jazeera More recently, “enemy projectiles” hit areas near Sirik, according to Iranian media. Source: Al Jazeera The tit-for-tat strikes have also drawn in US allies: an Iranian drone damaged a residential building in Kuwait City on September 3, and the IRGC has attacked US bases in Jordan. Source: Al Jazeera

Why this matters for Ukraine

Every supertanker that avoids Hormuz, every barrel of Saudi crude that stays in the ground, pushes global energy prices higher. European governments are already spending billions to keep their economies afloat while arming Ukraine. A protracted disruption of Middle Eastern oil flows would force harder budget choices — and possibly reduce the appetite for long-term military aid to Kyiv.

Moreover, the US military is now simultaneously running air campaigns over Iran and Yemen while maintaining a presence in the eastern Mediterranean. Any major escalation — such as a full closure of Hormuz or a direct US-Iran naval clash — would consume bandwidth that might otherwise go to Ukraine. For a Ukrainian command relying on timely deliveries of American weapons and intelligence, that is a worrying prospect.

The war in Iran may feel distant from the trenches of Donbas. But the decisions made in Tehran, Riyadh and Washington over the coming weeks will be felt in Kyiv within months.