Kyiv's independence day diplomacy masks €27bn defence gap and gaps in Russia sanctions

Ukraine marked its 35th Independence Day on 24 August with a show of European solidarity that belied two uncomfortable realities: a €27 billion hole in its defence budget for next year, and a list of 22 companies quietly supplying Russia's Su-35S fighter jet programme that no country has yet sanctioned.

British Prime Minister Andy Burnham, on his first overseas trip since taking office, joined European Council President António Costa and almost a dozen other European leaders in Kyiv to lay a wreath and reaffirm support Source: The Guardian. Costa announced he would begin a tour of EU capitals the following day, with Ukraine's accession negotiations, missile defence supplies and the bloc's long-term budget on the agenda Source: Ukrainska Pravda. The NATO Military Committee will meet in Copenhagen on 18-19 September to follow up on the Ankara summit's pledge of at least €140 billion in military support for 2026-2027 Source: Ukrainska Pravda.

But the diplomatic choreography collided with hard numbers. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the Coalition of the Willing meeting in Kyiv that Ukraine faces a €27 billion shortfall in its 2026 defence budget, and suggested the EU could front-load part of its €90 billion loan, originally scheduled for 2027, to cover the gap. The European Commission's chief spokesperson, Paula Pinho, confirmed on 25 August that no formal request has been received, though she added that Brussels stands ready to accommodate such a request “to the largest extent possible” Source: Ukrainska Pravda.

Ukraine's UN representative, Andrii Melnyk, used the Independence Day session of the Security Council to argue that Russia is losing the war. He pointed to the dismissal of Andrei Klepach, chief economist at state-owned bank VEB.RF, who had warned Moscow cannot win a prolonged economic war. Melnyk cited Russia's budget deficit reaching 5.8 trillion roubles (about $69 billion) in the first four months of 2026, and a nearly 40% year-on-year drop in oil and gas revenues Source: Ukrainska Pravda.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's Defence Intelligence (DIU) published an interactive 3D model and a list of 79 companies involved in producing the Su-35S fighter jet, which Russia uses to intercept Ukrainian drones and missiles. Of those, 22 remain unsanctioned by any country, including Aviation Corporation Rubin (braking wheels) and Research Institute Oktava (R&D). DIU stressed that synchronising sanctions against all elements of Russia's military-industrial complex is “an important part of creating the conditions for a just peace” Source: Ukrainska Pravda.

In Prague, a Freedom Bell cast from a 7 kg artillery shell and fragments of an S-300 missile was rung for the first time outside the Church of the Most Holy Saviour. The bell, inscribed with a line from Galatians in Ukrainian, Czech and Dutch, was consecrated with the help of the Netherlands and installed in Czechia Source: Ukrainska Pravda.

For European readers, the week's events underscore a pattern: the political will to support Ukraine remains high, but translating that into timely cash and closing the sanctions loopholes that allow Russian industry to keep building combat aircraft is proving harder. The €27 billion question — whether Brussels will advance the loan — is likely to dominate Costa's tour of capitals and the NATO Military Committee meeting in September.