Russia's September aerial blitz enters fourth week: 172 drones launched overnight as Moscow stockpiles missiles for winter

Russia's aerial campaign against Ukraine shows no sign of abating as September enters its fourth week. On the night of 20-21 September, Russian forces launched 172 drones of various types — including Shahed and Gerbera attack drones, Parodiya decoys and Banderol/Dan-T drone missiles — with Ukrainian air defence destroying or jamming 148 of them, according to Ukrainska Pravda. Hits by aerial assets were recorded at 14 locations, with debris falling at four more. The attack began at 18:00 on 20 September and was still ongoing as of 08:00 the next morning.

The scale of the overnight assault is consistent with a pattern of sustained pressure. On the night of 18-19 September, Russia fired two Zircon hypersonic missiles and 174 drones, with 141 aerial assets intercepted or jammed, as reported by Ukrainska Pravda. Both Zircon missiles — launched from Kursk Oblast — failed to reach their targets, according to the Ukrainian Air Force, which said their fall locations were still being determined. The previous night, 138 drones were launched, with 101 downed or jammed and hits recorded at 17 locations, per Ukrainska Pravda.

The intensity of these attacks has fluctuated but never stopped. On 15-16 September, Russia used 80 Shahed and Gerbera drones, downing 63, with hits at seven locations. Two nights later, the number jumped to 157 drones plus Oniks, Iskander-M, S-400 and KN-23 missiles, with 131 aerial assets destroyed or jammed and hits at 36 locations, according to Ukrainska Pravda. The main targets have consistently been Odesa, Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Ukrainian air defence — including aircraft, anti-aircraft missile units, electronic warfare and mobile fire groups — has been the only thing standing between these attacks and far wider destruction. Yet there are signs the worst may be yet to come. Bloomberg reported that Russia has significantly reduced its use of ballistic missiles since August, instead relying more heavily on jet-powered drones. The outlet suggests Moscow is stockpiling its most dangerous missiles — particularly ballistic types that cause the most severe damage to energy infrastructure — for winter strikes on Ukraine's power grid, a tactic used in previous years.

That assessment is supported by data from Ukraine's Energy Ministry, which as of February 2026 counted 5,796 Russian attacks on the country's energy system since the full-scale invasion began, including more than 60 large-scale strikes. The UN has already warned it is "very worried" about the upcoming winter in Ukraine, as reported by Ukrainska Pravda.

For now, the immediate threat remains the nightly waves of drones. The Ukrainian Air Force noted that of the 172 drones launched overnight, 64 were jet-powered — a type that flies faster and is harder to intercept. The Russians also continue to use Parodiya decoys to confuse air defence and stretch Ukrainian resources.

What this means for the coming weeks is a test of endurance. Ukraine's air defence stockpiles, particularly for interceptors, will be stretched if the current pace continues. The shift toward jet-powered drones and the stockpiling of ballistic missiles suggest Russia is preparing for a winter campaign aimed at breaking the will of Ukraine's civilian population. The question is whether Ukraine's allies can provide enough air defence systems and ammunition to hold the line until the spring.

As of now, Russian personnel losses stand at 1,517,990, according to the Ukrainian General Staff, with 1,560 killed or wounded in the past day alone. But the human cost of these attacks is not only measured in soldier casualties. In September alone, Russian strikes have killed civilians in Sumy, Kryvyi Rih and Kherson, and destroyed critical infrastructure including a ceramics factory in Zhytomyr Oblast.

The pattern is clear: Russia is not seeking a diplomatic solution. The Kremlin has called a potential Putin-Zelenskyy meeting at the G20 summit in Miami "impossible," as reported by Ukrainska Pravda. Instead, it is doubling down on a strategy of attrition, hoping that winter will do what the battlefield has not. For Ukraine and its allies, the next few months will be decisive.