Six months in, US-Iran war has no clear victor as Gulf security shifts

Six months after the United States and Israel launched missile strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026 – killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, senior officials and scores of children in a school in Minab – the conflict has expanded to multiple fronts, triggered a global oil supply crisis and left neither side able to claim a decisive advantage.

What began as a surprise strike in Tehran has since reached the Caspian Sea, and the battle for control of the Strait of Hormuz – through which more than a fifth of the world’s oil and gas transits – has become the central military contest. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) now asserts that it controls the waterway, while the White House maintains that a US naval blockade is keeping the strait open for commercial shipping Source 1.

What each side has gained and lost

According to an analysis published by Al Jazeera on August 28, the war has produced an estimated 8,000–10,000 deaths and tens of thousands of injuries Source 3. The US objectives, never clearly defined, shifted over time. President Donald Trump initially claimed the conflict would last “four to five weeks.” Washington’s stated aims included eliminating Iran’s nuclear programme – despite Trump’s earlier claim that this had already been “obliterated” during Israel’s 12-day war on Iran in June 2025 – and preventing Tehran from developing weapons-grade material.

On the Iranian side, the loss of its supreme leader dealt a severe blow to the political and military command structure. Yet the IRGC has continued to operate, launching missile and drone attacks against US positions and allied Gulf states, and demonstrating an ability to disrupt global energy markets through its actions in the Strait of Hormuz. Neither side has achieved a knockout blow.

A new Gulf security architecture

The war is reshaping how Gulf states think about their own defence, according to an opinion piece by Al Jazeera on August 29 Source 2. For decades, Gulf security rested on the United States as the main external umbrella, bilateral ties with Western capitals and the Gulf Cooperation Council’s uneven defence integration. That structure has not disappeared, but the assumption that it is sufficient has.

The war has demonstrated the vulnerability of cities, energy infrastructure, airports, ports and shipping lanes to missiles and drones – threats that were once the stuff of exercises have become immediate operational problems. Gulf states are now moving toward a more layered security system, strengthening cooperation among themselves while deepening relationships with a wider range of partners.

“So far, events have borne out the broad direction” of arguments that deeper defence cooperation would become unavoidable, the piece notes. The war is not just changing defence budgets or generating new security agreements; it is changing how states think about security itself: who they should work with, what they should expect from their partners and what cooperation needs to look like when a crisis actually begins.

Strategic implications for Europe and beyond

For European readers following the war closely, the significance lies in the global oil supply crisis and the realignment of alliances. The Strait of Hormuz remains contested, with the IRGC claiming control and the US enforcing a blockade. The outcome of that standoff will determine energy prices and supply routes for months to come.

Meanwhile, the war is accelerating a shift away from sole reliance on the US security umbrella. Gulf states are building their own defence ecosystems, which could have long-term consequences for Western basing rights and military cooperation in the region. The conflict is also drawing in other actors: the Caspian Sea front suggests the war could expand further.

Neither side shows signs of backing down. The IRGC’s assertion of control over the strait is a claim, not a confirmed fact – the White House insists the waterway remains open. What is clear is that after six months, the war has no clear victor, and the region is adapting to a new, more dangerous normal.