Stubb: Ukraine is Europe's 'best security guarantee' as Russian drone found on Finnish coast

Finnish President Alexander Stubb told German tabloid Bild on 29 August that Ukraine is "militarily, politically and financially" stronger than at any point since the full-scale invasion began, and that "Ukraine has the advantage, and it is winning this war." In an interview reported by Ukrainska Pravda, Stubb said that for Finland and Germany, "Ukraine is the best guarantee of our security against Russia. If Ukraine loses, we lose too."

Those are fighting words from the leader of a nation that shares a 1,340-kilometre border with Russia — and the days that followed gave them a practical cast. On 4 September, Finland identified a drone found on a beach as a Russian Geoscan 701 reconnaissance UAV, according to Ukrainska Pravda. The incident, likely a reconnaissance or test flight that veered off course, fits a pattern of Russian drone incursions deep into Finnish territory since Helsinki joined NATO in 2023. No confrontation at sea or on land has been publicly reported, but the identification is a stark reminder that Finland is now a direct target of Russian surveillance.

Stubb's statement also carries a strategic argument. He frames support for Ukraine not as charity, but as a down payment on Finland's own security — a view that increasingly informs Nordic and Baltic defence planning. "We, both in Germany and in Finland, have to realise that Ukraine is the best guarantee of our security against Russia," he told Bild. He added that if Ukraine loses, "we lose too."

The Finnish president also dismissed fears of a Russian nuclear strike on Ukraine, saying he had raised the issue with China's foreign minister this summer and received the response: "We will never allow this to happen." Whether that private assurance is worth much is an open question, but Stubb appears willing to treat it as a deterrent.

Meanwhile, the material basis for Stubb's confidence is growing. On 9 September, Ukraine's defence minister announced that Kyiv is signing contracts for approximately 1,000 Patriot missiles, reported Ukrainska Pravda. That is roughly five to ten years' worth of pre-war procurement for many European armies, and it would give Ukraine the ability to defend its cities for the foreseeable future. It also signals that the United States and Germany, the main producers of Patriot systems, are preparing for a long war of attrition — not a quick settlement.

Stubb, for his part, does not want a seat at the negotiating table. In the same interview, he said he does not seek to be a public participant in peace talks, but is ready to serve as a negotiator if needed. That is consistent with Finland's role during the Cold War as a venue for East-West summits. But for now, the message from Helsinki is clear: Ukraine must not only survive, but win. And with Russian drones washing up on Finnish beaches and Patriot missile contracts being signed in Kyiv, the Finnish president's claim that Ukraine is Europe's best security guarantee no longer sounds like wishful thinking — it sounds like strategy.